Analysis | Trump wants a do-over on repealing Obamacare. That seems unwise.

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In the year With a little more than 11 months to go in the 2024 presidential campaign, you can expect a steady stream of those contending Democrats. Donald Trump In the second word will be unrelated – the Defenses are thrown aside And the word-limited Trump goes to his more cautious advisers, who try to dissuade him once and for all.

This weekend, Trump set an example for Democrats.

After years of Republicans effectively abandoning their goal of repealing Obamacare, Trump has signaled that he is back at the table and making it a priority.

“The cost of Obamacare is out of control, plus, it’s not good health care,” Trump said on Truth Social on Saturday. “I am seriously considering options. We had a pair of Republican senators who campaigned for 6 years and quit. It was a low point for the Republican Party, but we must never give up!”

Whether Trump and his party will try again is the right question. Trump says a lot. It was the motivation of this opinion Editor of the Wall Street Journal Raising concerns about insurers exploiting the law, also known officially as the Affordable Care Act.

But what is clear is that the effort to “end” Obamacare is not what Americans want. During Trump’s tenure, the GOP’s efforts were not limited to repealing and replacing Obamacare Historically unpopularBut the law has become more popular since then. Perhaps most surprisingly, this doesn’t seem like a big deal to the GOP base.

  • According to the Washington Post’s summer 2017 poll poll, on average, Only 22 percent of Americans They supported the GOP’s ultimately failed effort to replace Obamacare, while 55 percent opposed it.
  • While the law was initially unpopular—there were problems getting the program up and running a decade ago—many polls showed its approval. Gathering the majority As the GOP began trying to repeal and replace in 2017. as if Gallup pollIn the year It went from 42 percent approval around Election Day in 2016 to 55 percent in April 2017.
  • KFF (formerly the Kaiser Family Foundation), the only major pollster to repeatedly test views of the law over the past two years, also showed a favorable view of the law this year – It’s up from 57 percent to 62 percent..
  • In the year A Fox News poll in late 2020 asked voters to choose between keeping the law in place or repealing it. They chose to keep it 64 percent to 32 percent. Even 32 percent of Republicans supported keeping it.
  • In the year KFF polls in 2020 have shown the bill is a declining priority for Republican voters. Opposing or repealing Obamacare was their top health care issue in 2016, with 29 percent naming it. But that It fell to only 3 percent In 2020.

This is in some ways counterproductive. Trump’s approach to abortion rights. In that case, Trump has warned his party against hard-line pressures that have caused problems at the ballot box.

Obamacare is less of a vote-getter. Abortion Nowadays, it’s not front and center in many ways. GOP effectively He dismissed Obamacare as an issue. In the year In the 2020 and 2022 campaigns, he realizes that his efforts have failed and it is not worth pressing the issue (or politically wise).

But that doesn’t mean it can’t be a big deal again, and the reason is simple: Voters don’t like threats to take away benefits. Obamacare is not a proprietary program, strictly speaking It has some characteristics of one. And as politicians talk about ending health insurance for tens of millions of Americans, ending coverage for pre-existing conditions and defunding Obamacare’s Medicaid, things Get more dicier.

It is not clear what the “alternative” might be. Trump has already paid lip service to preserving some of Obamacare’s most popular features. But actually making this happen is going to be very difficult.

Will Trump really go down this way? His actions on abortion rights and the facts of their implementation suggest that we should not hold our collective breath. But don’t underestimate the fact that this issue is more personal to Trump than abortion rights.

It was a major setback on his watch — see his comments about “a low point for the Republican Party” — and he was angered by the man he often mocked, Sen. John McCain (R-Ariz.), who was shot down by a thumbs-up. End the effort once and for all. Trump may think that the increasingly pro-Trump GOP faction in Congress is more likely to go along with him.

Whether he follows it or not, he certainly has. He gave the Democrats a talking point.

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