Trump’s Ceiling Challenge

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There is no doubt that President Joe Biden is in trouble politically. In key swing states, post-election polls show Biden trailing former President Donald Trump.

Warnings of an anxious Democratic base are everywhere. Young, black and Hispanic voters have less enthusiasm for Biden, and Trump is making inroads with these groups.

And in election after election, Trump, leading, has not improved from his 2020 showing.

Looking at the latest swing state polls of seven key states — Arizona, Georgia, Michigan, Nevada, North Carolina, Pennsylvania and Wisconsin — Trump’s current vote share is within two to four points of his 2020 performance. It is very similar to the 2016 vote share.

For example, polls in Pennsylvania show Trump’s vote share ranging from 47% to 49%, which is in line with his 2016 (48%) and 2020 (48.8%) vote shares. In Arizona, the poll shows Trump taking 46% to 49% of the vote, compared to where he was in 2020 (49.1%) or 2016 (48%).

Meanwhile, the Biden election is in.

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