We must monitor Iran’s gaze toward Jordan – opinion

0 30


As the complex political web of the Middle East continues to evolve, new and potentially transformative dynamics are emerging.

Islamic Republic IranA regime that proudly and clearly has a narrative focused on exports and high demand, seems to be setting its sights on it. JordanA move with far-reaching implications for the Middle East and beyond.

This shift in Iran’s focus on Jordan is more than a geopolitical move.

Changing the regional power balance

It is a strategy that will significantly change the balance of power in the region, challenging the position of key actors such as Saudi Arabia and Israel. The impact of this will have far-reaching effects beyond the borders of these countries, affecting a wide range of international security concerns and the strategic calculations of the world’s major powers.

Iran’s strategy, we must remember, is very similar to the calculated movement of a predator chasing its prey in an internal conflict. The Islamic Republic has a proven track record of exploiting internal conflicts within nations, intensifying tensions and gradually allowing it to take control – Syria and Iraq are clear examples of this approach.

Members of the IRGC special forces attend a rally marking the annual Quds Day, or Jerusalem Day, on the last Friday of the holy month of Ramadan in Tehran, Iran, April 29, 2022. agency) by REUTERS

Such methods are not only opportunistic; They reflect a deeper, more ambitious blueprint laid out by former Iranian leader Ayatollah Ruhollah Khomeini. The vision that followed the Shah’s abdication was not only for a transformed Iran, but also for the center of the Islamic world to shift from Sunni-dominated Mecca to Shia-centered leadership.

In this grand strategic plan, Saudi Arabia As a desirable, albeit distant, prize-goal, Iran’s current capabilities and geopolitical realities are unattainable. However, the strategy to isolate and weaken the Saudi government may begin by expanding its influence over neighboring states such as Jordan.

advertisement

Influencing Amman, a capital city with significant historical and religious prestige, could be a crucial step in Tehran’s long-term regional ambitions—especially given Jordan’s title of custodian of Jerusalem’s holy sites, the role of Ayatollah Khamenei and the Iranian government. See it as the ornament they want to correct the leadership of the Islamic world.

Jordan’s complex historical and demographic dimensions, with its Palestinian diaspora population and its alliance with Sunni forces, present a favorable and favorable environment for Iranian strategic activity.

Predicting the direction of Iran’s ambitions in Jordan involves navigating regional complexities and strategic calculations. While it is challenging to identify a specific timeline or outcome, current trends and historical patterns in Iran suggest a gradual, deliberate approach.

This strategy is consistent with Iran’s broader regional ambitions and its long-standing practice of expanding influence in the Middle East. The road to Mecca—metaphorically and geopolitically—may well pass through Amman, which, if the Iranian regime’s ambitions in Jordan are fulfilled, has profoundly and perhaps irreversibly changed the geopolitical landscape of the Middle East.

The significance of this development for regional stability cannot be overstated.

Iran’s potential motives for seeking influence over Jordan are multifaceted.

Iran strategically challenges Saudi Arabia’s prestige in the region and the Islamic world by weakening the Hashemite regime. This move represents a significant shift in the religio-political dynamic of the Middle East, with Jordan maintaining key Islamic sites in Jerusalem and Hashem’s line of descent from the Prophet Muhammad.

Hamas’s recent escalating war against Israel may, in this view, serve a dual purpose. These attacks not only expose Israel as vulnerable, but could be the starting point for a wider regional conflict with neighboring powers, especially Jordan.

The potential mass movement of Palestinians into Jordan, as a result of Israel’s crackdown on extremist elements in Judea and Samaria, will severely damage Jordan’s social and political fabric, giving Iran a ripe opportunity for influence.

If you look back at the Houthis’ long march into Sanaa in early 2015 (during Yemen’s civil war), a few months before Saudi Arabia decided to declare an army against the Shiite rebel group, the same move against Amman may not be the case. distant

Iran’s geopolitical strategy in the Middle East, particularly its involvement in conflict zones such as Iraq, Syria, Lebanon, and Yemen, reflects its expansionist policy.

The role of the Al Quds Force and proxies such as Hezbollah highlight Iran’s preference for indirect methods of influence. In the context of Jordan, which has historically had a cautious relationship with Iran, Tehran’s approach is likely to be more subtle, exploiting internal vulnerabilities rather than direct confrontation.

With unique historical and religious significance, the Hashemite kingdom faced the challenge of managing a complex political movement. The management of Palestinian refugees and the Hashemite Kingdom’s alignment with Saudi Arabia are critical factors in maintaining its stability. Any significant change in Jordan’s political environment, under the influence of foreign powers such as Iran, could have major implications for regional security.

The prospect of Iranian influence in Jordan invites several scenarios, each with its own regional and global implications. For Saudi Arabia, it represents a direct challenge to regional authority, despite its almost complete geographic isolation from the notorious Axis of Resistance. For Israel, it could mean heightened security concerns and a reassessment of strategic priorities.

For Western powers, the risk to strategic waterways in the Red Sea and the Sea of ​​Hormuz could be dire — and all because of their collective refusal to understand the true nature of the mullahs’ religious aspirations.

While world capitals are busy debating the Palestinian issue, arguing over Israel’s right to save itself, Tehran is tightening its grip on the region, slowly suffocating the forces that can still resist its influence. The real danger here lies in the myopic view of regional dynamics in the West.

The reaction of world powers, especially the United States and European countries, will be crucial to balance Iran’s influence and maintain Jordan’s stability.

Given Jordan’s strategic importance in the Middle East, it is important to closely monitor Jordan’s stability by supporting Iran’s actions and alliances diplomatically and economically. Engaging in active regional diplomacy and countering extremist narratives are important strategies.

Further research should focus on Iran’s proxy networks, Jordan’s internal political dynamics, and evolving regional alliances to provide a deeper understanding of possible changes in the Middle East’s geopolitical landscape. It would be foolish to discount Tehran’s interests by basing our analysis on the immediate threat to the Israeli government.

The author is from Forward Strategy Ltd. He is director and researcher at the American Center for Levant Studies (ACLS).







Source link

Leave A Reply

Your email address will not be published.

This website uses cookies to improve your experience. We'll assume you're ok with this, but you can opt-out if you wish. Accept Read More